This is my first diary. At least, this is the first diary that I have not deleted. I'm not an eloquent writer, and I ask that you bear with me, as I get my sea legs. There is a lot of buzz about the 50 State strategy (especially right now, in the middle of the canvas), and I was wondering how it translated to the state level. As I'm from Kansas and am pursuing a career in Kansas politics, I figured I'd crunch some numbers.
Bear in mind that the filing deadline for Kansas is not until noon on June 12, so there is plenty of time to correct any problems that arise. Also, Kansas's filing fees (at least for state level office) are not terribly steep ($105 for state reps.), enabling almost anyone who wants to run for office to do so.
First, it appears that Governor Sebelius will breeze through her re-election campaign. She is raising significant money for the campaign, pulling in almost 2 million dollars in the last quarter. At filing, she had 1.74 million cash on hand. By comparison, Senator Jim Barnett (R-Emporia) only has 250,00 cash on hand after raising nearly 300,000 dollars. As of this moment, Senator Barnett is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. He has nearly 5 times the cash on hand of the four other Republican candidates combined. In addition to out-raising the Republican candidates, Governor Sebelius has done significantly well in tracking polls. She is currently sitting at a 59% / 35% approve/disapprove. Her approval ratings cross gender, geographical, and even ideological boundaries. In fact, the only group where Governor Sebelius polled fewer than 50% was with ideological conservatives. Even in this group, the Governor polled at 49%.
The Attorney General race will probably be a hot one. The current Republican Attorney General (Phill Kline) is batshit, baby-eating crazy. He angers the left outside the state, and worries nearly everyone inside the state. His opponent, Paul Morrison, is a moderate Republican who switched parties and is running as a Democrat. He raised over $330,000 in the last quarter, and has approximately $315,000 cash on hand. Phill Kline, on the other hand, had some trouble with fundraising, only raising $200,000 dollars (in addition to the $200,000 he had from previous quarters.) He has 15,000 dollars less cash on hand than Paul Morrison. This race will heat up quickly, and will probably get very nasty.
The Kansas Senate is a forty-member body, which is heavily dominated by Republicans. In fact, there is a three to one advantage for the Republican Party. However, the Senate is not up for re-election this cycle, so this is all I will write on the subject.
I'm finally reaching the bulk of my diary: the Kansas House of Representatives. Currently 74 of 125 seats lack a Democratic candidate. By contrast, the Republican Party has 38 seats left to fill. There are 15 seats that have at least one Democrat and one Republican. 11 of the seats without a Democratic candidate featured close races in 2004. These seats are: 4th (Fort Scott and northern area), 11th (Coffeyville), 16th (Overland Park and Lenexa), 23rd (Shawnee), 25th (Mission Hills), 69th (Salina), 75th (El Dorado), 79th (Arkansas City and Winfield), 87th (Wichita), 96th (Wichita), and 114th (St. Johns).
In 32 of the seats, there was no Democratic challenger in 2004. The prospects of winning in these seats are, for the most part, slim. Most of these districts are in Johnson County and other heavily Republican areas. However, a candidate in these seats would prevent the incumbent from donating their campaign funds to embattled Republicans in other districts.
There is so much more that I could write on this topic, but this diary is probably long (and boring) enough as it is. Plus, it will probably scroll off the page rather quickly. There will probably be more diaries from me on this topic in the coming weeks and months. If you know any good Kansas Democrats, particularly in the districts mentioned above, you might encourage them to think about running.